英国脱欧对租赁市场的影响

Leasing market reacts to Brexit

In the reaction of the British population having voted to leave the EU on 23rd, leasing industry experts have warned the market to expect some short term instability, and that the longer term future is uncertain.
    租赁行业专家提醒，23日英国人民投票决定脱离欧盟可能会给租赁市场带来短期不稳定性，而长期前景还不确定。
Leasing market intermediaries expressed shock at the result but stressed that the status change was to become the new normal.

Chris Cooper, managing director at Challenge Consulting, said: "The instant reaction will be shock, surprise and uncertainty. There was no real sense that Leave would win, so people are still taking it in. Personally, I think it's really hard to call what will happen next. In the immediate term, both here and EU, my best hope is that worry and fear, and I sense both this morning, will quickly subside as people get used to waking up in the new world."

租赁中介对这一投票结果表示惊讶，但强调市场环境变化将成为新常态。Challenge Consulting常务董事Chris Cooper表示：“我的下意识反应是震惊，惊讶和不确定。没想到脱欧派会赢，然而人们还是接受了。我个人认为现阶段很难说租赁业和欧盟接下来会发生什么，我希望黎明前的担心的恐惧能够随着人们适应新常态而迅速平息。”

Lindsay Town, chief executive officer at IAA Advisory, said that the causative effect of the vote on the political status of the Union with Scotland could cause difficulties for British businesses.

IAA Advisory 首席执行官, Lindsay Town表示，选票的对苏格兰政治形势的影响将威胁英国经济。

"Uncertainty remains the biggest risk, far more than a status of in or out of the EU," said Town. "The uncertainty of what leaving the EU actually means will impact Investment decisions in the near term. The added potential disruption of Cameron's announcement and the risk of Scottish independence rearing its head again will not be positive for the UK economy. Wider afield, I worry that there will be pressure from other anti EU parties in Europe that will also add to instability."

她认为：“不确定性相较于在欧盟内外的地位仍然是最大的威胁。脱欧后的不确定性将影响短期内投资决策。加之卡梅伦辞职声明的潜在破坏和苏格兰独立再次抬头的风险，都将对英国经济产生消极影响。长远看来，我担心来自欧洲反欧盟的各方压力也会增加不稳定性。”

European investment and regulation in the UK

欧洲在英国的投资和监管

Earlier this week, the European Investment Bank (EIB) announced a deal with Funding Circle to provide £100m (€130.47) of funding to UK SMEs.

本周早些时候，欧洲投资银行（EIB）宣布为Funding Circle注资1亿英镑（130.47欧元，用于英国中小企业融资。

A spokesman for the EIB said that the future of the EIB's involvement in investment in the UK was now under question, but said any contracts signed would "be respected".

EIB发言人表示，EIB对英国的未来投资目前遇阻，但是已经签订的合同将“被尊重”。

The EIB spokesman said: "We would expect the UK shareholding in the EIB and EIB lending in the UK to be one of many issues to be discussed in withdrawal negotiations, and we would expect the UK to remain a shareholder in the EIB, with a 16% shareholding, until a withdrawal agreement is implemented."

EIB发言人表示：“我们希望英国在EIB的股东地位和EIB在英国的贷款将成为脱欧谈判谈论的议题之一，我们也希望英国仍持有在EIB的16%的股份，直到脱欧协议实现。”

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) warned that the vote will have significant implications for the UK, as much financial regulation currently applicable in the UK derives from EU legislation, and this will remain applicable until any changes are made.

英国金融市场行为监管局（FCA）警示，此次投票将对英国产生重要影响，因为目前许多应用于英国的金融监管来自欧盟立法，而且这些在有任何改变之前，仍将适用。

It said firms must continue to abide by their obligations under UK law, including those derived from EU law and continue with implementation plans for legislation that is still to come into effect.

But it is likely that the resources that the FCA has will now be focused on the post-EU transformation of the UK's financial system.

英国公司必须继续遵守本国法律，也包括来自欧盟的法律规定的义务，而且继续实施仍会生效的立法计划。但是FCA很可能将力量集中于英国金融系统的后欧盟时代转换。

The FCA added: "The longer term impacts of the decision to leave the EU on the overall regulatory framework for the UK will depend, in part, on the relationship that the UK seeks with the EU in the future. We will work closely with the government as it confirms the arrangements for the UK's future relationship with the EU."

FCA 表示：“脱欧对于英国整体监管框架的长期影响将部分取决于英国与欧盟未来的关系。我们将会与政府紧密合作，及时掌握与欧盟未来关系。”

The Finance & Leasing Association (FLA) also suggested that it will be some time before the full consequences of the vote are known. Stephen Sklaroff, director general of the FLA, said: "We are at the beginning of what will be a long process of discussion and negotiation. As the Bank of England and FCA have already emphasised, the current legal and financial regulatory framework for FLA members remains exactly as it was before the vote, and it is likely to do so for some considerable time. “The UK has a strong and resilient financial sector and the FLA's members will continue to make a vital contribution to the economy. 

英国融资租赁协会（FLA）也认为，投票的全部后果只有过一段时间才能显现。FLA 常务会长Stephen Sklaroff认为：“漫长的讨论和谈判过程刚刚开始。英国央行和FCA已经强调，当前的法律和金融监管对于FLA成员跟投票前一样，仍然有效，而且在相当长一段时间内很有可能也这么做。”英国的金融部门强大而具有弹性，FLA的成员将继续为经济作重要贡献。

"The FLA will work closely with the government, regulators and other stakeholders to ensure that its members' interests are properly reflected in discussions over the coming months and years about the possible market and regulatory consequences of the decision to leave the EU."

“FLA将于政府、监管机构和其他利益相关者紧密合作，以确保成员的利益在未来几个月或者几年对于脱欧后市场走势，监管的讨论中得到反应。”

Transition

过渡

Grant Thornton suggested there will be three broad phases of reaction to Brexit: initial volatility, medium term uncertainty and instability, and finally a longer term transition period.

Grant Thornton表示英国脱欧将经历三个阶段：最初的波动期，中间的不稳定和不确定期以及最后长时间的过渡期。

The impact of this will be different for different organisation, Grant Thornton warned. It advised companies: "In looking at the threats and opportunities these create for your business, and planning how you can create and protect value, you may wish to consider the short, medium and long term implications for issues like people and talent, strategic ambitions, financing, risk, operations and protecting investment."

脱欧对不同组织的影响是不尽相同的。Grant Thronton建议企业：“注意脱欧对企业业务的威胁和挑战，计划如何创造和保护价值，考虑三个阶段对人，人才，战略规划，融资，风险，业务操作和保护投资等方面的影响。”

The National Association of Commercial Finance Brokers (NACFB) agreed that immediate uncertainty. Paul Goodman, chairman of the NACFB, said: "In the wake of the Leave result, and the resignation of David Cameron, the UK is facing a period of considerable uncertainty, and small and medium-sized businesses will not be immune. Nobody knows how the result of the EU Referendum will play out, and its ultimate impact on the economy, but choppy waters in the short-term are almost guaranteed. The political events of the past 24 hours have the potential to shape the UK business landscape for many years to come. It's just impossible to know whether it will be for better or for worse. What we shouldn't forget is that the economy is robust and employment levels high. Managed correctly, the result of the referendum does not have to trigger a replay of the Global Financial Crisis. Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, made a statement to this effect shortly after the Prime Minister's resignation"

商业融资经纪人协会（NACFB）也同意暂时不确定性。NAFCB会长Paul Goodman表示：“受脱欧和卡梅伦辞职的影响，英国将面临长期的不确定性，中小企业也不能免受其害。没有人知道欧盟公投的结果如何，也不知道其最终对经济的影响如何，但短期内的波涛汹涌是毫无疑问的。过去24小时的政治事件有可能影响英国今后多年的经济形势。只是不知道会更好还是更坏。我们只要记住经济强健和高就业水平就好。恰当的管理公投结果就不会再次引发全球金融危机。英国兰银行行长Mark Carney在首相辞职后做了短暂声明。”

Challenges for bank-backed asset finance

银行支持资产融资面临的挑战

Stuart Law, founder and chief executive of peer-to-peer funding platform, Assetz Capital, said that Brexit would create a big opportunity for its investors as he thought bank interest rates on business loans were likely to rise, making banks less competitive.

P2P融资平台，Assetz Capital创始人兼首席执行官Stuart Law认为，英国脱欧将为投资者创造巨大的机遇，因为银行商业贷款利率可能上升，银行竞争力下降。

"Banks' lending volumes are now reduced and at the same time, they are likely to lower their savings account rates even further," said Law. "This will allow us to continue to grow strongly and deliver more lending to quality businesses who can provide us with solid loan security and also deliver more interest to our lenders. "

Law 认为：“目前银行放款量减少，同时他们可能会进一步降低储蓄存款利率。这样我们就可以继续壮大，为能保证还款的优质客户提供更多的贷款，也可以增加放款人利润。”

Law continued: "We have lent over £120m to the British economy backed by what is principally strong property security at modest loan to value, and as a result our lenders have earned approaching £12 million of interest since 2013. We expect this to continue but the credit team will be even more careful on the quality of businesses we lend to as we navigate the inevitable wobbles created out of the Brexit. Hard security on loans will be even more important."

他还认为：“我们为英国经济支持的财产安全性高的企业贷款超过1.2亿英镑，因此自2013年以来我们放款人获利1200万英镑。我们预计盈利将会继续，但是信贷团队对于评估贷款企业的质量将更加谨慎，因为我们不可避免的要经受英国脱欧带来的动荡。贷款的安全性将更加重要。”

Manufacturers cite jobs at risk

制造商用工面临风险

Hitachi chairman Hiroaki Nakanishi has said a Brexit would force a 'rethink' of the manufacturer's operations and jobs in the UK, and that this view was shared by international investors such as the parent manufacturers of leasing businesses; Siemens, GE, and Microsoft.

    Hitachi总裁Hiroaki Nakanishi表示，英国脱欧将破事制造商反思其在英国的业务和用工，而且像租赁公司的制造商母公（Siemens, GE和Microsoft.）等国际投资者也会有同样的思考。

Nakanishi said Hitachi had invested a billion pounds creating jobs in the UK's rail and energy sectors, but that the 'critical benefit of investing in the UK' was that it was the best base for accessing the European market of 500 million people.

Nakanishi表示，Hitachi已经投资10亿英镑在英国的铁路和能源方面创造就业，但是投资英国的关键在于，这是获得欧洲5亿人口市场的最佳平台。

Nakanishi added: "There are other reasons like the size of the UK market, availability of local and international talent and the support of our local communities - which is why we take a positive view of the UK inside Europe. Therefore we have our regional headquarters here and moved our global rail headquarters to London. But take away the UK's membership of the EU, and the future investment case looks very different."

Nakanishi还认为：“还有投资英国的其他原因，如英国市场，获得当地和国际人才，当地社会的支持，这是我们认为英国入欧的积极方面。因此，我们地区的总部设立在伦敦，全球铁路总部也搬到伦敦。但是如果英国脱欧，那么未来投资情况就大不相同了。”

Nakanishi also mentioned Nissan and Toyota's arrival in the UK in the 1980s on the basis that if they produced cars in the UK and employed a British workforce then they would be treated as European companies.

Nakanishi还提到Nissan and Toyota在1980年代来到英国，是因为如果他们在英国生产汽车而且雇佣英国劳动力，那么他们将被视为欧洲公司。

"This was only possible because Britain was inside the EU; and so the UK car industry was revived and became an exporter again," said Nakanishi.

    Nakanishi 说：“这些条件得以实现是因为英国是欧盟国家，也因此英国汽车业得以复苏，而且再次成为出口国。”

According to Nakanishi, Japanese companies account for 140,000 jobs in direct employment and supply chain in the UK. He said a survey of these 140,000 employees revealed that 95% did not want to leave the EU because of the threat to their employment.

据Nakanishi所说，日本公司为英国直接就业创造了140.000个工作岗位，而且完善英国汽车供应链。他说调查显示，140.000名员工中95%的人不赞成脱欧，因为这将威胁到他们就业。